Entries from September 2008 ↓

The best thing that can be said about Sarah Palin is that she has managed expectations well (i.e., going into the debate, expectations are low enough that she just needs say something not-100%-retarded to beat expectations).

The best thing that can be said about Sarah Palin is that she has managed expectations well (i.e., going into the debate, expectations are low enough that she just needs say something not-100%-retarded to beat expectations).

Yesterday, before the debate, Obama stood at 55.2 on intrade (meaning that it cost $.552 to buy a piece of paper that pays $1 if Obama wins—meaning that the markets estimate that he had a 55.2% chance of winning).

At then end of the debate, he had dropped to 53.5% (costing me a beer—I had my own bet going on). He is now at 57.2%.

Therefore, the markets recon that he did better on the post-debate than in the actual debate.

Yesterday, before the debate, Obama stood at 55.2 on intrade (meaning that it cost $.552 to buy a piece of paper that pays $1 if Obama wins---meaning that the markets estimate that he had a 55.2% chance of winning). At then end of the debate, he had dropped to 53.5% (costing me a beer---I had ...

McCain’s been (rightly) criticised for his call to fire SEC chairman Cox. I finally understood why.

In the military, if something happens when you are in charge, then you take responsibility, independently of whether it is actually your responsibility or just bad luck.

The critics who point out that Cox is a competent individual are, from McCain’s militaristic view, missing the point.

Just another example of his scary desire to turn the whole society into the military.

McCain's been (rightly) criticised for his call to fire SEC chairman Cox. I finally understood why. In the military, if something happens when you are in charge, then you take responsibility, independently of whether it is actually your responsibility or just bad luck. The critics who point out that Cox is a competent individual are, from ...

If BS were currency Palin could bail out Wall Street herself.
Kathleen Parker

If BS were currency Palin could bail out Wall Street herself. Kathleen Parker

I love the smell of summer rain.

I love the smell of summer rain.

From the ongoing series when I grow up I want to be like Andrew Sullivan:

Here’s a funny video. It’s a taxi driver that, by mistake, took the place of an expert in a BBC interview:

This came to mind after hearing Gov Palin’s interview.

She always reminds me of a bad movie, in which a small town mayor finds himself suddenly on the national stage. Of course, in the movies, it turns out that the small town mayor, with his folksy wisdom is better than the experts. In real life, we have Sarah.

From the ongoing series when I grow up I want to be like Andrew Sullivan: Here's a funny video. It's a taxi driver that, by mistake, took the place of an expert in a BBC interview: This came to mind after hearing Gov Palin's interview. She always reminds me of a bad movie, in which a small ...

From the ongoing series the destruction of fisheries is the big unacknowledged environmental catastrophe of today:

An article in this week’s Science Magazine argues that a simple solution works: privatise the fisheries:

Although the potentially harmful consequences of mismanaged fisheries were forecast over 50 years ago (1, 2), evidence of global declines has only been seen quite recently. Reports show increasing human impacts (3) and global collapses in large predatory fishes (4) and other trophic levels (5) in all large marine ecosystems (LMEs) (6). It is now widely believed that these collapses are primarily the result of the mismanagement of fisheries.

[...]

Rather than only setting industry-wide quotas, fishermen are allocated individual rights. Referred to as catch shares or dedicated access privileges, these rights can be manifest as individual (and tradable) harvest quotas, cooperatives, or exclusive spatial harvest rights; the idea is to provide—to fishermen, communities, or cooperatives—a secure asset, which confers stewardship incentives.

[...]

By examining 11,135 global fisheries, we found a strong link: By 2003, the fraction of ITQ-managed [individual transferable quotas] fisheries that were collapsed was about half that of non-ITQ fisheries. This result probably underestimates ITQ benefits, because most ITQ fisheries are young.

Guess what, privatisation works for fisheries too.

From the ongoing series the destruction of fisheries is the big unacknowledged environmental catastrophe of today: An article in this week's Science Magazine argues that a simple solution works: privatise the fisheries: Although the potentially harmful consequences of mismanaged fisheries were forecast over 50 years ago (1, 2), evidence of global declines has only ...

If only we had the right regulation in place, there would be no financial crisis. This NY Times article from 1999, illustrates how difficult it would have been to get the right regulation in-place:

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets — including the New York metropolitan region — will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.

Fannie Mae, the nation’s biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.

[...]

”Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990’s by reducing down payment requirements,” said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae’s chairman and chief executive officer. ”Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.”

Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market.

(via Coyote)

Now, you tell me, how would it be politically feasible to pass legislation making it harder to lend money to the poor?

If only we had the right regulation in place, there would be no financial crisis. This NY Times article from 1999, illustrates how difficult it would have been to get the right regulation in-place: In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing ...

The Internet owes its success to two pillars of human activity: masturbation and procrastination.

Chris Wilson, in Slate.

The Internet owes its success to two pillars of human activity: masturbation and procrastination. Chris Wilson, in Slate.

From the ongoing series it’s always a good time to remember “Yes, Minister”:

1. Something must be done.
2. This is something
3. Therefore, this must be done.

Or, in the bailout version:

1. Something big must be done.
2. This is something big.
3. Therefore, this must be done.

From the ongoing series it's always a good time to remember "Yes, Minister": 1. Something must be done. 2. This is something 3. Therefore, this must be done. Or, in the bailout version: 1. Something big must be done. 2. This is something big. 3. Therefore, this must be done.