Betting on the Election

Yesterday, before the debate, Obama stood at 55.2 on intrade (meaning that it cost $.552 to buy a piece of paper that pays $1 if Obama wins—meaning that the markets estimate that he had a 55.2% chance of winning).

At then end of the debate, he had dropped to 53.5% (costing me a beer—I had my own bet going on). He is now at 57.2%.

Therefore, the markets recon that he did better on the post-debate than in the actual debate.