Post-Convention Bump: Polls & Markets

People have wonder whether the post-convention bump is a real thing (what Russ Roberts has called the scary idea that people would change their minds on something so devoid of real content as a convention) or whether it’s simply a matter of the energised faithful replying to pollsters more (without any change in the number of people who actually plan to vote for any one candidate).

At least the betting markets seem to believe that McCain has got a real boost from his convention: he was trading at 49% earlier in the day(i.e., the consensus view of the market is that he has a 49% chance of becoming president). This is better than it ever was for him.

People have wonder whether the post-convention bump is a real thing (what Russ Roberts has called the scary idea that people would change their minds on something so devoid of real content as a convention) or whether it's simply a matter of the energised faithful replying to pollsters more (without any change in the ...