From the ongoing series following every move on intrade:
On the first Presidential debate, I bet (a beer) on which way Obama would move on intrade during the debate (I lost: Obama was down when the debate was over and then climbed steadily through the evening).
Today, it seems that intrade allows that bet directly. The odds are now 63% that Obama will win with today’s debate.
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It should be noted that, given that Obama is ahead of the polls, if the debate is a draw, then Obama’s odds of winning the actual election should go up because it is one less opportunity for McCain to catch up.
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Prices on Intrade have been moving out of line with the other exchanges for about a month. On the UK betting exchanges Obama increased his lead from about 77% to 80% last night.
Here is our page which links to all the markets: http://www.hubdub.com/m17795/Who_will_win_the_2008_US_Presidential_Election
[...] Commenter Nigel points out that intrade puts Obama with less chances of winning than other markets. This is money on the [...]
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