The recession continues until next election. The US enters in deflation, sending real interst rates to high values.

To approve a rescue package to finantial sector, Obama has to negotiate with the moderate wing of the Republicans (not only to avoid filibuster, but also because of the “Nay” votes of many left-wing Democrats, who want a swedish-style nationalization). The price: don’t raise taxes on the high incomes.

“Giving money to the banks” and don’t raising the taxes “on the richs” will enrage much of the Democrat base. Combined with unemployment and people being evicted from their house, some occasional riots occur.

Meanwhile, in the “red states”, the “militia movement” reborns, accusing Obama of being a tool of international bankers.

In the republican primaries, a populist candidate (a mix of Buchanan and Huckabee?) emerges, speaking in favour of “law and order”, “protect american jobs”, “low taxes” and against “big government and big bussiness”.

Most moderate, “open borders” and pro-free trade Republicans (David Brooks style?) defect from the party and give support to Obama re-election. However, this is a mixed blessing, because this will make Obama less atractive to the left.

Finally, the election day: in the side of Obama, the minorities (specially blacks) and the social liberal middle-class, but the white working class votes massivly in the Republican candidate (finishing a move that begins in 1968).

The result? Unknown.